Habitat loss and the risk of disease outbreak

摘要

Scientific consensus suggests that COVID-19 was transmitted to humans from wildlife (Rodriguez-Morales et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020). Any such disease that is transferred from animals to humans through direct contact or though food, water, and the environment is commonly referred to as a zoonosis. Nearly two thirds of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, and three-quarters of them originate in wildlife (Jones et al., 2008; Cunningham et al., 2017). Consequently, COVID-19 could be one of possibly many newly emerging zoonotic diseases that originate from a wild species. There is growing evidence that land-use change is an important pathway for the transmission of zoonotic diseases fromEvidence suggests that emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, originate from wildlife species, and that land-use change is an important pathway for pathogen transmission to humans. We first focus on zoonotic disease spillover and the rate at which primary human cases appear, demonstrating that a potential outbreak is directly related to the area of wildlife habitat. We then develop a model of the costs and benefits of land conversion that includes the effect of habitat size on the risk of disease outbreak. Our model and numerical simulations show that incorporating this risk requires more wildlife habitat conservation in the long run, and how much more should be conserved will depend on the initial habitat size. If the area is too small, then no conversion should take place. Any policy to control habitat loss, such as a tax imposed on the rents from converted land, should also vary with habitat area. (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.