THE GREAT RECESSION AND THE EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND THE U.S. RECESSION: A MARKOV-SWITCHING AND TAR-VEC ANALYSIS

摘要

Since the oil crisis of 1974, there has been strong interest in the question of how oil production shortfalls caused by exogenous events in OPEC and other oil-exporting countries affect oil prices and U.S. real GDP growth. This paper focuses on shock periods in the oil market since 1968 and presents and discusses the empirical findings obtained by using different MS specifications for the statistical assessment of the business cycle and TVEC and MS-VAR for economic policy. The scope of the countries we analyzed included the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Australia, Italy, and South Africa.