Predictability of the U.S. Dollar Index using a U.S. export and import price index-based relative PPP model

摘要

We use U.S. export and import price indexes to construct a relative purchasing power parity-based model of the nominal U.S. Dollar Index. The model is successful in predicting the future direction of change in the U.S. Dollar Index over a six-month period up to 68% of the time. Finally, the model, in combination with a simple linear, recursive technique, is able to statistically significantly outperform the random walk in predicting the value of the U.S. Dollar Index at terms of less than four months for the period from 1996 to 2005. The paper provides important implications for investors who are interested in the direction of change in the Dollar’s value, forecasting the level of the U.S. Dollar Index, as well as the extent of over- and undervaluation of the U.S. Dollar, in general.