The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

摘要

Purpose - The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1-2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach - A SOE-NK-DSGE model-Bayesian estimation. Findings - This paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. Originality/value - This research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.