The chronic inflation process: a model and evidence from Brazil and Israel

摘要

This paper challenges the dominant model which was used to explain the chronic inflation process, as in Latin America in the seventies and eighties. Unlike the usual long term view we present a variant of the Barro and Gordon policy game model which is based on short term considerations in the inflationary period. In the latter period the model implies a random walk and after stabilization the model implies stationarity. Thestatistical tests, using data from Brazil and Israel, do not reject the implications of the model.