The Baker Hypothesis: Stabilization, Structural Reforms, and Economic Growth

摘要

During the late 1970s and early 1980s, developing country governments from Kingston to Kuala Lumpur ran large fiscal deficits, causing their countries' stock of public debt to increase faster than GDP. As debt-to-GDP ratios breached critical thresholds and real interest rates for borrowing in US dollars rose, access to foreign financing ceased. When Mexico defaulted on its external obligations in 1982, precipitating a global debt crisis, governments increasingly turned to monetization as an alternative source of funding and inflation rose. By 1985, the average rate of inflation in the developing world was approaching 40 percent per year, with some countries spiking into hyperinflation.