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Time variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach

机译:具有异构代理的金融市场中较高矩的时间变化:一种分析方法

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摘要

A growing body of recent literature allows for heterogenous trading strategies and limited rationality of agents in behavioral models of financial markets. More and more, this literature has been concerned with the explanation of some of the stylized facts of financial markets. It now seems that some previously mysterious time series characteristics like fat tails of returns and temporal dependence of volatility can be observed in many of these models as macroscopic patterns resulting from the interaction among different groups of speculative traders. However, most of the available evidence stems from simulation studies of relatively complicated models which do not allow for analytical solutions. In this paper, this line of research is supplemented by analytical solutions of a simple variant of the seminal herding model introduced by Kirman [1993, Ants, rationality, and recruitment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, 137-156]. Embedding the herding framework into a simple equilibrium asset pricing model, we are able to derive closed-form solutions for the time-variation of higher moments as well as related quantities of interest enabling us to spell out under what circumstances the model gives rise to realistic behavior of the resulting time series.
机译:越来越多的最新文献允许在金融市场行为模型中采用异类交易策略和代理商的有限理性。越来越多的文献关注金融市场某些典型事实的解释。现在看来,在许多这些模型中,可以观察到一些以前神秘的时间序列特征,例如收益的肥大尾巴和波动的时间依赖性,这是由不同投机交易者群体之间的相互作用所产生的宏观模式。但是,大多数可用的证据都来自对相对复杂的模型的仿真研究,这些模型不允许分析解决方案。在本文中,这一研究领域得到了由Kirman [1993,Ants,合理性和补充性]引入的精简成群模型的简单变体的解析解的补充。经济学季刊108,第137-156页]。将羊群框架嵌入到简单的均衡资产定价模型中,我们能够得出较高矩的时变以及相关利息量的封闭式解决方案,从而使我们能够清楚地说明该模型在什么情况下产生了现实意义。时间序列的行为。

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