Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in sub-Saharan African countries

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of asymmetric structure inherent in exchange rate volatility on trade in sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach - 17 countries in sub-Saharan African Countries are used for the study. Exchange rate volatility is generated using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedacity (1,1), while the asymmetric components of exchange rate volatility are generated using a refined approach of cumulative partial sum developed by Granger and Yoon (2002). Two-step generalised method of moments is used as the estimation technique in order to address the problem of endogeneity, commonly found in panel data. Findings - The result from the study shows the evidence of exchange rate volatility clustering which is strictly persistent in sub-Saharan African countries. The asymmetric components (positive and negative shocks) of exchange rate volatility have negative and significant effect on trade in the region. Meanwhile, the effect of negative exchange rate volatility is higher on trade when compared with the positive exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, real exchange rate has negative and significant effect on trade in sub-Saharan African countries. Research limitations/implications - The outcomes of this study are important for participants in foreign exchange market. As investors in foreign exchange market react more to the negative news than positive news, investors need to diversify their risk. Also, regulators in the market need to formulate appropriate macroeconomic policies that will stabile exchange rate in the region. Originality/value - This study deviates from extant studies in the literature by incorporating asymmetric structure into the exchange rate trade nexus using a refined approach.