Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium range rainfall forecast system for Indian region

摘要

India Meteorological Department has implemented district level medium range rainfall forecast system applying multimodel ensemble technique, making use of model outputs of state-of-the-art global models from the five leading global NWP centres. The pre-assigned grid point weights on the basis of anomaly correlation coefficients (CC) between the observed values and forecast values are determined for each constituent model at the resolution of 0.25° ×0.25° utilizing two season datasets (1 June–30 September, 2007 and 2008) and the multimodel ensemble forecasts (day-1 to day-5 forecasts) are generated at the same resolution on a real-time basis. The ensemble forecast fields are then used to prepare forecasts for each district, taking the average value of all grid points falling in a particular district. In this paper, we describe the development strategy of the technique and performance skill of the system during summer monsoon 2009. The study demonstrates the potential of the system for improving rainfall forecasts at five days time scale over Indian region. Districtwise performance of the ensemble rainfall forecast reveals that the technique, in general, is capable of providing reasonably good forecast skill over most states of the country, particularly over the states where the monsoon systems are more dominant.