Peak oil, the rise of China and India, and the global energy crisis

摘要

Should current trends continue, China and India are widely expected to play leading roles in the world economy in the twenty-first century. However, the economic rise of China and India coincides with the decline of fossil fuels. There is growing consensus that the world's total oil production is likely to reach its peak in the near future and, to alleviate global warming, it is necessary to dramatically reduce the use of all forms of fossil fuels. This article discusses the interactions between the economic rise of China and India and the global energy crisis. Several scenarios that range from the failure of the Chinese and the Indian national development projects to global environmental catastrophes are discussed.