A dual-randomness bi-level interval multi-objective programming model for regional water resources management

摘要

In this research, a dual-randomness bi-level interval multi-objective programming (DR-BIMP) model was developed for supporting water resources management among multiple water sectors under complexities and uncertainties. Techniques of bi-level multi-objective programming (BMOP), double-sided stochastic chance constrained programming (DSCCP), and interval parameter programming (IPP) were incorporated into an integrated modeling framework to achieve comprehensive consideration of the complexities and uncertainties of water resources management systems. The DR-BIMP model can not only effectively deal with the interactive effects between multiple decision-makers in complex water management systems through the bi-level hierarchical strategies, but also can characterize the multiple uncertainties information expressed as interval format and probability density functions. It could thus improve upon the existing bi-level multi-objective programming through addressing discrete interval parameters and dual-randomness problems in optimization processes simultaneously. Then, the developed model was applied to a real-world case to optimally allocate water resources among three different water sectors in five sub-regions in the Dongjiang River basin, south China. The results of the model include determining values, interval values, and stochastic distribution information, which can assist bi-level decision-makers to plan future resources effectively to some extent. After comparing the variations of results, it is found that an increasing probability level can lead to higher system benefits, which is increased from [20,786.00, 26,425.92] x 10(8) CNY to [22,290.84, 27,492.57] x 10(8) CNY, while the Gini value is reduced from [0.365, 0.446] to [0.345, 0.405]. A set of increased probability levels gives rise to the lower-level objectives. Furthermore, the advantages of the DR-BIMP model were highlighted by comparing with the other models originated from the developed model. The comparison results indicated that the DR-BIMP model was a valuable tool for generating a range of decision alternatives and thus assists the bi-level decision-makers to identify the desired water resources allocation schemes under multiple scenarios.