Impact of uncertainty in soil, climatic, and chemical information in a pesticide leaching assessment (vol 5, pg 171, 1990)

摘要

A simple mobility index, when combined with a geographic information system, can be used to generate rating maps which indicate qualitatively the potential for various organic chemicals to leach to groundwater. In this paper we investigate the magnitude of uncertainty associated with pesticide mobility estimates as a result of data uncertainties. Our example is for the Pearl Harbor Basin, Oahu, Hawaii. The two pesticides included in our analysis are atrazine (2-chloro-4ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) and diuron [3-(3,4-dichloropheny1)-1,1-dimethylarea]. The mobility index used here is known as the Attenuation Factor (AF); it requires soil, hydrogeologic, climatic, and chemical information as input data. We employ first-order uncertainty analysis to characterize the uncertainty in estimates of AF resulting from uncertainties in the various input data. Soils in the Pearl Harbor Basin are delineated at the order taxonomic category for this study. Our results show that there can be a significant amount of uncertainty in estimates of pesticide mobility for the Pearl Harbor Basin. This information needs to be considered if future decisions concerning chemical regulation are to be based on estimates of pesticide mobility determined from simple indices.