Estimates of the potential for energy conservation and CO_2 emissions mitigation based on Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM): the case of the iron and steel industry in China

摘要

To evaluate the potential for energy conservation and CO_2 emissions mitigation in China's iron and steel industry during 2010 and 2020, a detailed model was developed and applied based on Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios including the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the integrated policy (INT) scenario and the strengthen policy (STR) scenario have been set to describe future policy measures in relation to the development of the iron and steel industry. Results show that STR scenario in 2020 would realize an additional energy saving potential of 58.2 million tce accounting for 14.18% of the total energy consumption, while the potential for CO_2 mitigation of 218.0 million ton CO_2 takes up 14.53% of the predicted emission. And results indicate that technology promotion is the main driver for energy saving and emissions reduction, more than structure adjustment. In order to meet the targets set by the 12th Five-Year Plan in China's iron and steel industry, it is essentially to promote technologically advanced approaches with a high-demand policing rate. Specific energy conservation technologies could aid significantly to the cause. In the long term, energy saving and emissions reduction of China's iron and steel industry will rely mostly on technology promotion.