Resilience assessment of the lithium supply chain in China under impact of new energy vehicles and supply interruption

摘要

The development of new energy vehicles had a huge impact on lithium demand under the framework of the lithium supply chain, and geopolitical changes have increased the risk of lithium supply interruption. Does the lithium supply chain have the coping ability under the demand impact of new energy vehicles and the risk of supply interruption? Can some improvement measures improve the coping ability of the lithium supply chain? In this paper, the system dynamic modeling is used method to evaluate the supply-chain resilience; make the price, supply and demand systems be the three resilient mechanisms of the lithium supply chain; and set demand impact, supply interrupt, and three enhancement measures as the model scenes. The simulation results show that the lithium supply chain is less resilient under the impact of new energy vehicles. Furthermore, the resilience of the lithium supply chain is good under the risk of short-term supply interruption, but worse under long-term supply interruption. Finally, promoting a design for recycling has the most obvious improvement in coping ability with the lithium supply chain, with reserve stockpile and drawdown focused more on adjusting supply chain fluctuations and; material substitution has only a slight improvement in supply-chain resilience. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.