China's carbon emission peak pre-2030: Exploring multi-scenario optimal low-carbon behaviors for China's regions

摘要

As the world's second-largest economy, China plays a pivotal role in global CO2 emission abatement. In this study, we used an IPAT model to design 48 peak CO2 emission scenarios. We used a centralized DEA to evaluate the allocative efficiency of scenario-based CO2 emission paths by maximizing the aggregated potential GDP under fixed emission quantities. We found that maintaining relatively high GDP growth (around 6%), reducing energy intensity by about 75% of average annual decline rate of 2005-2015 (around 4%), and increasing non-fossil energy to 21% to meet the Innovation plan of energy technology revolution 2016-2030 requirements is the most efficient low-carbon behaviors towards 2030 peak CO2 emissions of 10.57 Gt. We also found that China can potentially reduce CO2 emission intensity (CEI) by up to 72.7% compared to the 2005 level in 2030, and therefore that official CEI reduction targets (60-65%) are well within reach. CEI will not readily converge in future years due to the large differences in energy-saving and emission abatement potential across different regions in China; the rank of convergence is CO2CO2 per capita CEI. Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are key areas in whether or not their respective regions complete the emission reduction task. To this effect, these provinces merit special attention. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.