Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Events

摘要

Three experiments tested the exemplar cuing and frequency format accounts of how the 'imaginability' of low-probability events is enhanced. The experiments manipulated imaginability by varying the statistics used to describe negative (e.g. being scarred as a result of laser surgery) and positive (e.g. winning a lottery) low-probability events. The results strongly supported the frequency format account, whereby imaginability is enhanced through the use of frequency formats for conveying statistical information (e.g. 20 out of 2000 as opposed to 0.01 %). However, only limited support was found for exemplar cuing (EC) theory. Overall the results support the claim that the imaginability of outcomes plays a key role in thinking about low-probability events, but question the mechanisms specified by EC theory for mediating such effects.