Influence of climatic variability on the electricity generation potential by renewable sources in the Brazilian semi-arid region

摘要

Brazil presents favorable geographic conditions for the exploitation of renewable energy sources. Although the national electricity mix is predominantly hydroelectricity-based, increasing participation of solar energy has been observed. The availability and reliability of the electricity sector are intrinsically intertwined with climate conditions and can be influenced by its changes. The study presented herein investigates the effect of observed climate changes on the potential of electricity generation from photovoltaic solar and hydroelectric sources, in the semi-arid region of the Paraiba state (Northeast Brazil). The study area includes a Small Hydroelectric Power Plant (SHPP), and solar photovoltaic plants are currently being installed. Trend analysis revealed that total rainfall increased by 3.43 mm/year for the SHPP site during the studied period; however, electricity generation decreased by 3.23 MWh/year as water use was prioritized for human and irrigation purposes. Due to intense solar radiation, the study area presents favorable opportunities for the implementation of photovoltaic solar generation technologies. The increases verified in average air temperature did not affect the solar electricity generation significantly. The consideration of climate trends can help in the planning of energy systems, as climate variability can result in considerable fluctuations in renewable electricity generation, leading to disruption in energy supply.