Likelihood-based quantile autoregressive distributed lag models and its applications

摘要

Time lag effect exists widely in the course of economic operation. Some economic variables are affected not only by various factors in the current period but also by various factors in the past and even their own past values. As a class of dynamical models, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are frequently used to conduct dynamic regression analysis. In this paper, we are interested in the quantile regression (QR) modeling of the ARDL model in a dynamic framework. By combining the working likelihood of asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) with the expectation- maximization (EM) algorithm into the considered ARDL model, the iterative weighted least square estimators (IWLSE) are derived. Some Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimation method. A dataset of the consumption of electricity by residential customers is analyzed to illustrate the application.