Violent crime and incentives in the long-run: evidence from England and Wales

摘要

This study uses recent advances in time-series econometrics to investigate the non-stalionarity and co-integration properties of violent crime series in England and Wales. In particular, we estimate the long-run impact of economic conditions, beer consumption and various deterrents on different categories of recorded violent crime. The results suggest that a long-run causal model exists for only minor crimes of violence, with beer consumption being a predominant factor.