A new behavioural model for fertility schedules

摘要

Modelling age-specific fertility rates is of great importance in demography because of their influence on population growth. Although we have a variety of fertility models in the demographic literature, most of them do not have any demographic interpretation for their parameters. It is generally expected that models with behavioural interpretation are more universal than those without any interpretation. Even though the famous Gompertz model has some behavioural interpretation it suffers from other drawbacks. In the present work, we propose a new fertility model, which has its genesis in the generalization of logistic law. The proposed model has good behavioural interpretation, alongside having nice parameter interpretations.