Probabilistic Decision-Making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

摘要

Probabilistic decision-making has the potential to greatly improve system performance. By explicitly accounting for prediction uncertainties, ineffective and unnecessary interventions, whether for traffic flow management or separation management, will be reduced. Probabilistic decision-making leads to incremental corrective actions that maintain acceptable risks which are monitored and tailored to the characteristics of the individual problem. To achieve the benefits of probabilistic decision-making in the NGATS, tools for decision-making will incorporate improvements that reduce uncertainty as well as building upon an information-rich environment that provides not only more data than is available today, but provides confidence levels associated with different data elements. Further research is needed to develop performance parameters that measure the quality of proposed solutions with respect to safety and other performance objectives for a specific situation. A key research area is understanding the allocation of roles among humans and automation. Can humans maintain a high level of trust in a complex, probabilistic system, when the decisions made may not be entirely consistent with their intuition and experience?