Tour-Based Truck Demand Modeling with Entropy Maximization Using GPS Data

摘要

An approach is presented to determine the most likely tour distributions and model behavior for investigating drayage truck movements in a coastal region. This was done by implementing a revised form of entropy maximization based on truck tours to model and better understand drayage truck tour behavior at the San Pedro Bay Ports (SPBPs) complex in Southern California. The drayage trucks at the SPBPs have features that are distinct from other commercial trucks. The tour-based entropy maximization model proposed in this paper provides an opportunity to incorporate periodically updated GPS data collected in Southern California into a large-scale tour-based model. With the dataset, four models were estimated by cargo movement: (1) year-based, (2) low period, (3) medium period, and (4) high period models. The findings were consistent with the tour patterns varying by season and by cargo movement. Furthermore, the medium period, which represented relatively steady cargo movement, indicated a better MAPE (mean absolute percent error) than did other models. This proposed approach provides a significant advantage in that the most recent touring information obtained from advanced technologies could be directly applied to the tour-based model and subsequently used to assess various strategies.