China's sugar industry's aim to be 85% self-sufficient is unrealistic

摘要

Domestic sugar production since 2008/09 in China has consistently fallen short of local demand resulting in annual imports reaching a 16 year high of over 3 million tonnes in 2011/12. In response to this trend of declining supply, the government instituted a five year plan (2011 to 2015) to target 85% self-sufficiency in sugar production. This would be supported by investment in R&D and price incentives for both farmers and processors. But is this target of 85% self-sufficiency achievable amidst entrenched structural problems in the industry (impacting supply) on the one hand and continued high growth rates in the country and with it the expansion of middle class, westernisation of diets and increase in sugar consumption.