Granger causality from exchange rates to fundamentals: What does the bootstrap test show us?

摘要

We use a residual-based bootstrap method to re-examine the finding of the Granger causality relation from exchange rates to fundamentals in Engel and West (2005), in which the relation is taken as evidence for their explanation for the present-value model for exchange rates. Our test results are against the previous findings. The Monte Carlo experiment results suggest that the previous evidence for the causality relation from exchange rates to fundamentals is very likely caused by the size distortion. Hence, the existing Granger causality evidence is not strong enough to validate the new explanation for the present-value model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.