Forecasting the number of Arab and foreign tourists in Egypt using ARIMA models

摘要

This study aims to explore the situation of tourism in Egypt. The data used cover the periods from 1981 till 2017. By using ARIMA models, the study forecasts the expected numbers of Arab and Foreign tourists for five consecutive years, specifically from the year 2018 till 2022. The study identifies that ARIMA (0,1,0) is the most suitable model for both time series for Arab and foreign tourists. The study implies that the number of tourists in Egypt is going to increase. However, the percentage of increase is expected to decrease throughout the 5 years.