Bus Patronage Change after Sustainable Bus Reform: A Nested Logit Approach with the Case of Seoul

摘要

A nested logit model predicting the probabilities of commuters choosing three different modes were constructed to test the effect of the Seoul bus reform. Some empirical findings include the following. First, the Seoul BRT system contributed to increases in the patronage of bus over subway within the BRT catchment area (BCA). Second, commuters working in the BCA are more likely to choose to commute by bus than are people living in the BCA, which indicates that high accessibility to the BRT strongly influences workers who commute to their jobs to ride the bus. Third, percentage changes in the odds of choosing bus over subway were higher than those of choosing bus or subway over automobile for both BCAs, implying that the accessibility to the BRT contributed to inducing commuters to favor bus over subway.