Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

摘要

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (ⅰ) penalties for Type I and Type Ⅱ errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ⅱ) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (ⅲ) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.