PROJECTED CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SARAWAK STATE OF MALAYSIA FOR SELECTED CMIP5 CLIMATE SCENARIOS

摘要

This article explores the projected changes in precipitation, maximum temperature (T_(max)) and minimum temperature (T_(min)) in the Malaysian state of Sarawak under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with the CanESM2 Global Circulation Model. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale these climate variables at three stations in Sarawak. The model performed well during the validation period and thus was used for future projections under three RCPs with the CanESM2 General Circulation Model. It is noted that the T_(max) will increase by 1.94℃ at Kuching, 0.09℃ at Bintulu and 1.29℃ at Limbang, when comparing the period of 2071-2100 with the baseline period of 1981-2010, under the most robust scenario of RCP8.5. T_(min) is also expected to increase by 1.21℃ at Kuching, 0.15℃ at Bintulu and 2.08℃ at Limbang, under the RCP 8.5 projection for the same period. The precipitation at Kuching and Bintulu is expected to increase slightly to 1.6% and 1.4% at Kuching and Bintulu respectively; however, the seasonal shift is projected as follows: lesser precipitation during the December-February period and more during the June-August season. On the other hand, precipitation is expected to increase at Limbang during all seasons, when compared with the period of 1981-2010; it is expected that under RCP4.5 the annual precipitation at Limbang will increase by 10.5% during the 2071-2100 period.