Uncertainty analysis of five satellite-based precipitation products and evaluation of three optimally merged multi-algorithm products over the Tibetan Plateau

摘要

This study is the first comprehensive examination of uncertainty with respect to region, season, rain rate, topography, and snow cover of five mainstream satellite-based precipitation products over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for the period 2005-2007. It further investigates three merging approaches in order to provide the best possible products for climate and hydrology research studies. Spatial distribution of uncertainty varies from higher uncertainty in the eastern and southern TP and relatively smaller uncertainty in the western and northern TP. The uncertainty is highly seasonal, temporally varying with a decreasing trend from January to April and then remaining relatively low and increasing after October, with an obvious winter peak and summer valley. Overall, the uncertainty also shows an exponentially decreasing trend with higher rainfall rates. The effect of topography on the uncertainty tends to rapidly increase when elevation exceeds 4000 m, while the impact slowly decreases in areas lower than that topography. The influence of the elevation on the uncertainty is significant for all seasons except for the summer. Further cross-investigation found that the uncertainty trend is highly correlated with the MODIS-derived snow cover fraction (SCF) time series over the TP (e.g. correlation coefficient ≥0.75). Finally, to reduce the still relatively large and complex uncertainty over the TP, three data merging methods are examined to provide the best possible satellite precipitation data by optimally combining the five products. The three merging methods - arithmetic mean, inverse-error-square weight, and one-outlier-removed arithmetic mean -show insignificant yet subtle differences. The Bias and RMSE of the three merging methods is dependent on the seasons, but the one-outlier-removed method is more robust and its result outperforms the five individual products in all the seasons except for the winter. The correlation coefficient of the three merging methods is consistently higher than any of five individual satellite estimates, indicating the superiority of the method. This optimally merging multi-algorithm method is a cost-effective way to provide satellite precipitation data of better quality with less uncertainty over the TP in the present era prior to the Global Precipitaton Measurement Mission.