A Logistic Growth Model for Software Reliability Estimation Considering Uncertain Factors

摘要

Software reliability growth models (SRGMs) are widely used to estimate software reliability by analyzing failure dataset throughout the testing process. A large number of SRGMs have been proposed on a regular basis by researchers since the 1970s. They are represented with a set of assumptions and a set of parameters. One major problem in SRGMs is that the uncertainties surrounding the assumptions and parameters are generally not taken into account by most of them. Therefore, sometimes, the predicted reliability on testing phase significantly varies in actual operational phase. This paper presents a logistic growth model that incorporates a special parameter to consider the effects of all possible uncertainties. A systematic analysis is carried out to identify the major uncertain factors and their impacts on the fault detection rate. The applicability of the model is shown by validating it on two different real datasets that are commonly used in various studies. The comparisons with nine established models in terms of mean square error (MSE), variance, predictive-ratio risk (PRR), R~2and AIC have been presented.