SEGMENTED POINT PROCESS MODELS FOR MAINTAINED SYSTEMS

摘要

A maintained system is generally modeled using point processes. The most common processes used are the renewal process and the non homogeneous Poisson process corresponding to maximal and minimal repair situations with homogeneous Poisson process being a special case of both. A general repair formulation with a factor indicating the degree of repair is introduced into the minimal repair model to form an Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity model. These processes are generally able to model maintained systems with a fair degree of accuracy when the system is operating under stable conditions. However whenever there is a change in the environment these models which are monotonic in nature are not able to accommodate this change. Such systems operating under different environments need to be modelled by segmented models with the system domain divided into segments at the points of changes in the environment. The individual segments can then be modeled by any of the above point process models and these can be combined to form a composite model. This paper proposes a statistical model of such an operating/maintenance environment. Its purpose is to quantify the impacts of changes in the environment on the failure intensities. Field data from an industrial-setting demonstrate that appropriate parameter estimates for such phenomena can be obtained and such models are shown to more accurately describe the maintained system in a changing environment than the single point process models usually used.