Evaluation mechanism for structural robustness of supply chain considering disruption propagation

摘要

This paper aims to develop a novel evaluation mechanism for assessing the structural robustness of a supply chain considering disruption propagation. Disruption propagation means that the impact of risks propagates to the whole supply chain along the connected structure. Based on the propagation model, a structural robustness evaluation mechanism is devised by integrating two quantitative metrics, average path length and in degree-out degree. To validate the proposed mechanism, the result of the quantitative assessment of the structural robustness on random networks is compared with the probability of network disruption due to the random risk. From the results of the statistical verifications and sensitivity analysis, it can be said that the proposed mechanism is better at explaining the robustness of a supply chain. In other words, all components of a network, such as nodes and arcs, and their relationships should be considered altogether, in order to more accurately measure the robustness. It may be possible to apply the proposed mechanism to the very first step of designing the supply chain. Especially, in the case of it being hard to redesign a supply chain structure after practically launching and operating the designed network, the proposed mechanism may be utilised to verify whether the planned supply chain is robust to risks or not.