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Predicting burglar characteristics from crime scene behaviour

机译:从犯罪现场行为预测防盗特征

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The aim of the present study was to predict offender characteristics on the basis of crime scene behaviour in urban burglaries. The police files of 633 burglaries in the Finnish Metropolitan Area between 1990 and 2001 were content analysed using a predetermined list of variables. The crime scene behaviour variables were subjected to a principal component analysis. Fourteen factors indicative of different types of burglaries were identified and used to predict the characteristics of the 244 offenders using regression models. Statistically significant predictors of almost all offender characteristics were identified. From a practical point of view, the predictive models could be used in police investigations to narrow down the number of suspects.
机译:本研究的目的是根据城市入室盗窃案的犯罪现场行为来预测犯罪者的特征。使用预定的变量列表对1990年至2001年之间芬兰大都市地区的633个盗窃案的警察档案进行了内容分析。对犯罪现场行为变量进行主成分分析。确定了十四个指示不同盗窃类型的因素,并使用回归模型将其用于预测244名犯罪者的特征。确定了几乎所有罪犯特征的统计学上显着的预测因子。从实用的角度来看,可以在警察调查中使用预测模型来缩小犯罪嫌疑人的数量。

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