DEMPSTER{SHAFER EVIDENCE THEORY-BASED UPDATING RULE FOR CONTINUOUS OPINIONS AND DISCRETE ACTIONS

摘要

The opinion of an individual about a given problem is determined by the quantity and thendegree of certainty of knowledge mastered by the individual. The knowledge and informationnfrom other individuals might bring some con°icts with the individual's internal knowledge,nwhich would make the individual become uncertain about its opinion. Based on Dempsteru0001nShafer (Du0001S) evidence theory, a new opinion updating rule is proposed for individuals to formntheir opinion as the process of reasoning from the internal or the external knowledge in real life.nMany computer simulations are conducted under di®erent situations. It is found that thencommon phenomena such as consensus, fragment opinions can be observed among the individualsnon square lattices during the evolution of opinion, and that information is spread fromnthe higher certainty to the lower certainty, and the in°uence of opinion leaders become weakennduring the spread of information, and the range of in°uence is determined by the threshold ofnindividual acceptance of uncertainty of information.