Probabilistic risk analysis of safety management system failure and impact on economic performance: the case of jet engine manufacturing

摘要

It is widely known that operational accidents affects the productivity of manufacturing industry and evidences show that the adoption of a safety management system (SMS) can influence economic performance. This paper presents a method to perform probabilistic risk analysis of safety system failure and analysis of the impact on costs and economic performance. The novelty is the use of probabilistic risk analysis with Bayesian belief network to evaluate the effects of safety system failure on costs. The method is applied in the overhaul of jet engines to identify the factors affecting the safety system failure, the probability of their occurrence and the impact on cost. This method utilises design thinking to classify the risks. This study adds to the growing understanding that probabilistic risk analysis of safety system failure and associated costs is essential for safety operation and for competitive performance in jet engine manufacturing system.