Development of human health damage factors for tropospheric ozone considering transboundary transport on a global scale

摘要

Purpose Air pollutants such as tropospheric ozone and PM2.5 travel through large areas. The damage factors (DFs) presented by existing researches in life cycle impact assessment do not take into consideration transboundary movement. A previous study used a global chemistry transport model (CTM), to develop health damage factors for ten different regions around the world by considering the transboundary movement of PM2.5. Under the same assessment procedure, this research is designed to calculate the ozone DFs by region and to find the effects of wide range movement on the DFs.Methods The DFs by regions are defined as changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) derived from changes in tropospheric ozone concentration around the world which is induced by an increase in emissions of the unit amount of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). DFs for ten regions are calculated as follows. Firstly, the concentration change of worldwide ozone caused by a change in emission of a substance from one region is estimated with a global scale CTM for both NOx and NMVOC. Secondly, DALY changes on the world due to a change in concentration of ozone are estimated by using population data and epidemiological concentration-response functions for mortality and morbidity. Finally, the above calculations are done for all targeted ten regions.Results and discussion DFs of NOx and NMVOC for ten regions were calculated as 0.3-4.2 x 10(-5) DALY/kg and 0.2-5.6 x 10(-6) DALY/kg, respectively. It was found DFs might be underestimated around 10 to 70% by region if the transboundary movement is not taken into consideration. In many regions in the northern hemisphere, about 60% of damage occurs outside the emission area, which is larger than that of southern hemispheric regions due to a larger population exposed to downwind places. In regions of China and India, however, the influence on other regions accounted for only 10% because these regions involve larger influences in the source region. The impact of NO titration effect can be seen in cold seasons in many regions, but it was found that the effect is remarkable on an annual average only in Europe, a cold region with large emissions.Conclusions The human health DFs of NOx and NMVOC considering effects of transboundary movement of tropospheric ozone are estimated for ten regions by using a global CTM. As a future work, it is important to show the interannual sensitivity of the DFs through chronological assessments.