Intelligence and Balkan Instability: Repeating the Past or Moving in a New Direction?

摘要

Over the centuries intelligence has been a key instrument of statecraft. But intelligence information can be a double-edged sword. If correctly analyzed and applied, it may show leaders how to avoid calamities and arrive at optimal decisions. In some cases, it can avert a fight and provide the ground for compromise. But when misused and manipulated to advance political aims and preconceptions, it can lead to irreparable disaster and long-term suffering. Therefore, leaders and practitioners must be vigilant, especially since, by nature, intelligence attempts to crystal gaze the unknown, an exercise fraught with risks of the unexpected. Currently, decisionmakers and intelligence assessors face the added test of data overload due to the deluge of information from electronic classified surveillance and the monitoring of myriad open sources. Finished intelligence products are only as good as those who make the final operational decisions after weighing the uncertainties and warnings provided by intelligence collectors and analysts.