A random parameter negative binomial model for signalized intersection accidents in Seoul, Korea

摘要

A variety of statistical models were generally considered to better understand the relationship between crash occurrences and diverse factors. However, most of statistical models adapted fixed parameters which cannot incorporate time variation or sement-specific effects. To relieve this problem, this study focuses on a traffic accident frequency model using a random parameter negative binomial approach. This method allows for the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity in accident data that current popular methods such as Poisson or Negative Binomial models cannot account for. A four-year (2007-2010) continuous panel of accident histories at 95 signalized intersections in Seoul, Korea, was used to estimate the random parameter negative binomial model with traffic volumes and various geometric characteristics at intersections. Results show that the presence of a left-turn exclusive lane on a major road, the existence and length of a median barrier, and the existence of a pedestrian island on a major road are random parameters, and an additional ten variables significantly affected the safety at the intersections as fixed parameters. The fixed parameters were associated with major and minor roadway heavy vehicle volume, exclusive turn lane presence on major and minor roadway, taxiway lane presence, median barrier presence, as well as the number of lanes on major and minor roadway. The insights from this study indicate the need for broader analysis of lane channelization, lane exclusion and lane geometry effects as potential random parameters in intersection accident propensities.