Modeling the Transition from Adverse to Healthy Sleep Behaviors among School Age Children: A Simulation Approach

摘要

This research models and simulates, by way of a System Dynamics approach, sleep behavior in the presence of intervention strategies. The authors draw upon the established compartmental Susceptible, Infection, and Recovery (SIR) model used in epidemiology to characterize the potential for children and adolescents to both develop adverse sleep behaviors and to recover healthy sleep behaviors as they progress through educational levels. The development of healthy sleep during childhood and adolescence is important to the sustainment of healthy behaviors into early adulthood. Interventions designed to alter unhealthy sleep-related behaviors adopted at an early age may have a salubrious impact upon later chronic disease development. Our initial analyses adequately reproduce the drift experienced by children and adolescents who develop adverse sleep behaviors as they mature and transition through school levels. The ability to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions is important to public health officials. Investments in intervention programs shown to have positive health outcomes are attractive to policy makers. Although such programs may not be cost effective in the near-term, the programs may be cost saving in the long-term. The System Dynamics approach simulates behavior over time and allows policymakers insight into both the short- and longer-term cost and benefits.