Adaptive combination of forecasts with application to wind energy

摘要

This article proposes an adaptive forecast combination procedure, denoted as AEC, that tends to be similar to the use of the best available predictor in a time varying environment. In addition, a two-step procedure is proposed to allow the use of alternative combination procedures. In the first step, different combination procedures are used, the AEC among others. In the second step, the AEC is used to combine the combinations from the first step. The proposed procedures are applied to two wind farms where alternative forecasts were available, showing the advantage of the proposed method.