Tourism forecasting: An introduction

摘要

Tourism modeling and forecasting has been a very important area of research over the past five decades. According to Li, Song, and Witt (2005), over 420 studies were published over the period 1960-2000, while in a subsequent review, Song and Li (2008) identified another 121 articles which were published on this topic during the period 2000-2007. A recent literature search by the editors of this special issue indicates that more than 50 studies have been added to the publication list since 2007. There are three main reasons for this impressive increase in the number of published studies in the area of tourism demand modeling and forecasting. First, world tourism has grown from a mere 69.3 million international tourist arrivals in 1960 to 935 million in 2010, with an average growth rate of 5.3% per year; this has undoubtedly generated a considerable degree of research interest from academics and practitioners who want to understand both the determinants of this phenomenal growth and its future trends. Second,