Forecasting the NN5 time series with hybrid models

摘要

We propose a simple way of predicting time series with recurring seasonal periods. Missing values of the time series are estimated and interpolated in a preprocessing step. We combine several forecasting methods by taking the weighted mean of forecasts that were generated with time-domain models which were validated on left-out parts of the time series. The hybrid model is a combination of a neural network ensemble, an ensemble of nearest trajectory models and a model for the 7-day cycle. We apply this approach to the NN5 time series competition data set.