Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel

摘要

We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual-level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior which is more in line "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw & Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there are no systematic differences between advanced and emerging economies. (c) 2014 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.