Comment on 'How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?'

摘要

In this comment on "How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?" by Neil R. Ericsson, we investigate the sensitivity of the "bare-bones" application of the impulse indicator saturation technique. We offer an alternative but complementary interpretation of Ericsson's findings of bias in government debt forecasts. Our findings reinforce his interpretation of the role of the IIS technique as a general diagnostic tool for detecting model misspecification. (C) 2014 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.