A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Production in Botswana 1980-2008

摘要

This paper estimates the effects of climate change on cereal production in Botswana focusing on two staple cereals; sorghum and maize. The effect of random year-to-year variations in-weather and non-climatic variables on sorghum and maize output were estimated using 28-year district-level panel data. Results showed that, the two crops differed markedly in their response to climate variables. Maize production performed badly compared to sorghum which is drought resistant and performed well under the country's climatic conditions. As a result, sorghum production ought to be encouraged. Increasing temperature and deteriorating rainfall were found to be damaging to both crops. Climate change is likely to impose significant costs on farmers' livelihoods unless they can adapt quickly to changing climatic conditions. Based on these findings, some policy recommendations are given on how best to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change.