Probabilistic analysis of weather data for a hybrid solar/wind energy system

摘要

In this paper, a procedure for the probabilistic treatment of solar irradiance and wind speed data is reported as a method of evaluating, at a given site, the electric energy generated by both a photovoltaic system and a wind system. The aim of the proposed approach is twofold: first, to check if the real probability distribution functions (PDFs) of both clearness index and wind speed overlap with Hollands and Huget and Weibull PDFs, respectively; and then to find the parameters of these two distributions that best fit the real data. Further, using goodness-of-fit tests, these PDFs are compared with another set of very common PDFs, namely the Gordon and Reddy and Lognormal functions, respectively. The results inform the design of a pre-processing stage for the input of an algorithm that probabilistically optimizes the design of hybrid solar wind power systems. In this paper, the validity of the proposed procedure was tested using long-term meteorological data from Acireale (Italy).