A Probability Method for Very Short-Term Steady State Analysis of a Distribution System with Wind Farms

摘要

In this paper, a probabilistic method is proposed to analyze the very short-term steady-statenperformance of an unbalanced distribution electrical system characterized by the presence of windnfarms. This method, which can take into account the uncertainties of loads and wind productions,nis based on a Monte Carlo simulation procedure applied to the non-linear three-phase load flownequations, including wind farm models. Bayesian time series models are used to predict the nextnhour’s wind speed probability density functions, making possible a predictive evaluation of thenvery short-term system steady-state behavior. Numerical applications are presented and discussednwith reference to the three-phase unbalanced IEEE 34-bus test distribution system in the presencenof wind farms connected at different busbars.