Probabilistic production costing simulation of a thermal system with a pumped-storage power plant

摘要

The paper presents a model and two algorithms for the calculation of the additional pumping generation of thermal power plants and the discharging energy of a pumped-storage power plant in a thermal system. Both algorithms lead to the solution of a univariate global optimization problem. One of these problems provides an optimal result. The other is suboptimal, as it is based on a lower estimation for the absolute value of the derivative of the equivalent load duration curve. The proposed algorithms can be applied within any load duration curve based probabilistic method, and the practical solution of any of these problems depends on the type of convolution method used. The pitfalls of using load duration curves is well known from the literature, therefore the proposed methods can be used only for medium- and long-term planning purposes, and the results do not have operative meaning for the subperiods of the planning horizon.