On the models of peak load forecast uncertainty in probabilistic production costing algorithms

摘要

This paper presents a model and related methodology for the problem of reliability calculation and production costing simulation with peak load forecast uncertainty. The model uses conditional load duration curves, each of them represents a realization of the random peak load. The conditional load duration curves are arbitrary but identical over the interval of the base load domain, and linear in the peak load domain. The final load duration curve is a mixture (the integral) of the conditional load duration curves. The following cases of the peak load forecast random variable are considered: univariate gamma, beta and triangular distributions. The paper develops the calculation method for the parameter (s) of mixing probability density functions in these cases, and the formulae for the final load duration curves are given. The methodology can be used with any analytical or segmentation based convolution methods.