Reliability evaluation of electricity-gas-heat multi-energy consumption based on user experience

摘要

Reliability evaluation is of crucial importance for the planning, designing and operating of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system. However, the traditional reliability evaluation of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system was mainly considered from the perspective of the energy suppliers and the user?s subjective experience of energy consumption was not considered in the past. From the user?s perspective, this paper firstly establishes the reliability modeling of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system considering various energy forms of electricity, natural gas and heat, complex coupling relations and multi-energy storage. Secondly, the indexes of user?s severity perception degree of energy consumption faults and user?s satisfaction degree of energy consumption are introduced in order to describe user?s experience of energy consumption. For the side of users and user groups, the reliability evaluation indexes of energy consumption are proposed, including the reliability evaluation indexes of electricity consumption, the reliability evaluation indexes of gas consumption and the reliability evaluation indexes of heat consumption. Finally, the reliability evaluation method of electricity-gasheat multi-energy consumption based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method is proposed. In the case study, the traditional reliability evaluation indexes of energy supply and the proposed reliability evaluation indexes of energy consumption are compared in order to illustrate the importance of user?s experience of energy consumption and the effectiveness of the proposed method.